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Monday, June 30, 2003

U.S. Returns Syrian Border Guards: "The five were wounded and captured on the Iraq-Syria border during a clash June 18 when forces attacked what they thought might be fleeing officials of Saddam Hussein's deposed regime."

In CBS News: Iraq Crisis



Romanian worker dies in West Bank attack: "Israeli and Palestinian commanders shook hands Monday, bulldozers dismantled checkpoints and Palestinian traffic flowed freely in the Gaza Strip - the most significant sign of disengagement after 33 months of bloody fighting."

In Seattle Post-Intelligencer: War on Iraq



Iraq Democracy Watch: "No extra for rebuilding
As armed resistance increases, the Jordan Times   reports that, "Protecting the lives of US and British soldiers is taking precedence over reconstruction and the creation of a new government."
In other words, as I have been repeating ad nauseum recently, we don't have the manpower in Iraq to take care of both civilian and military objectives.  And that means that living conditions in Iraq will stay well below the standards (?) that were in place while Hussein was in power and will likely continue to deteriorate for the foreseeable future.
Which feeds in to the resistance.
And prevents us from producing and selling the oil that is supposed to help fund this venture (although it is looking more and more like pin money in comparison with the costs of the occupation, even if we can get oil production running properly.  See previous post .)
Multiple papers cited Senator Biden's call for NATO's help.  We are also paying off other countries to send forces for that "international look," expensive in military ventures as it is in fashion.  No one is touching the idea so far of UN peacekeepers.  Or of sending more American troops.
We don't seem to be enlisting the help of the Iraqis, themselves, very well, either.  The Washington Post quotes a policeman in Samarra saying,

No one is happy with the Americans, no one in this entire area... They are occupiers, and they act as occupiers.  It's a military force and we don't want to have any relations with them.

Which may explain why we don't seem to be getting a great deal of help from the police at the local levels.  Who, by the way, might be uneasy about looking like they are too close to the Americans -- an increasingly dangerous thing to do.  Just speculation, but it would make unfortunate sense.
While most historical analogies are misleading, the situation is beginning to look a bit like the occupied territories in Israel / Palestine -- at least in terms of what looks like a cycle taking shape -- of resistance, and then counter-resistance using "overwhelming combat power" (as The Guardian quoted US officials describing the latest offensive).  Which then radicalizes the opposition, etc., etc.
It is also interesting that the Brits seem to be taking lessons from their experience in Northern Ireland, and handling things a bit better in the south.  Compare that to Paul Bremer telling the BBC yesterday that we were going to "impose our will."
The core problem, of course, is that -- despite Mr. Rumsfeld's coyness -- we are, indeed, encountering guerilla operations.  And the US has never done particularly well fighting guerillas without proxy forces.
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When the U.S. says jump, it wants Pakistan to jump (29 June 03) in Radio Free USA



Are U.S. journalists truly spineless? (30 June 03) in Radio Free USA


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